A weekly bulletin for leaders who have outgrown founder-led hustle and are ready to build systems that sustain their vision and scale their business. Each issue decodes one “signal” — those subtle patterns that reveal friction, bottlenecks or untapped leverage. You’ll learn what it means, why it matters and how to fix it, all in 5 minutes or less, so you can shift from signal to system and from vision to velocity.
Before you lock in your 2026 metrics, read this.
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It’s January. Goals are set, dashboards are being rebuilt and metrics are top of mind for every scale-up leader I’m working with right now. Most founders assume the usual performance metrics have them covered. But in reality, an entirely different class of metrics is needed too -- the ones that determine whether your newly minted 2026 strategy is actually doing what you expect it to. The SignalYou’re looking at dashboards regularly. The numbers are mostly moving. Meetings include updates… and yet, you still can’t tell if your strategy is actually working. The issue isn’t that you lack data, it’s that your metrics aren’t telling you what to do. The Root CauseMost scale-up founders have “report card metrics” in place that track and indicate business health and team performance. Revenue, margin, CAC, retention, utilization, throughput, delivery speed… These metrics become actionable when they cross a predetermined threshold or trend negatively for multiple periods. What’s usually missing in scale-ups is a different category of metrics entirely: inflection metrics. Inflection metrics are the metrics that tell you, quickly and unambiguously, whether or not a specific strategic direction is working. In strategic planning, many teams skip the hardest questions: Is this strategy having the impact we expect it to have and how will we know? They never determine what to measure in order to assess the effectiveness of a particular strategy in real time. As a result,
Inflection metrics solve for this gap. The Tool: Inflection MetricsInflection metrics are a small set of controllable, observable metrics that tell you whether a strategic bet is working.
Controllable means the metric moves primarily as a result of actions your team can directly take or change, not as a result of external / market forces.
Observable means the change is visible, measurable and unambiguous. Someone can look at the data and reach the same conclusion without interpretation or debate.
Inflection metrics are not about overall performance, they’re about directional validation. They exist to test the hypothesis upon which a strategic direction is based. They ask "were the assumptions behind this strategy correct?" and answer “is this strategy having the impact we expect it to have”. If the metric values prove out the hypotheses (the results are as expected), you stay the course. If the metrics go in a different, unexpected, direction, you pivot as planned. The Technique: How to Define and Use Inflection MetricsStep 1: Name the strategic hypotheses you are actively testing A strategic hypothesis is a clear, testable belief about cause and effect in your business -- something you believe will happen if a specific change is made. Examples:
If you can’t finish the sentence “We believe that if __, then __,” you don’t yet have a strategic hypothesis. Be disciplined here. Most scale-up drift starts when teams execute without explicitly naming what they’re trying to prove, or without setting themselves up to accurately measure it. Step 2: Define the inflection metric that proves or disproves the hypothesis For each strategic hypothesis, identify one primary inflection metric that will tell you whether or not the hypothesis is proving out. This metric should:
If the metric only moves after revenue, profit or headcount change, it’s too late. That’s a report card metric, not an inflection metric. A good test: If this number moves in the wrong direction, would we have to reconsider the hypothesis? You’re looking for the answer to be Yes, otherwise your team may default to blaming the miss on other factors, and that will undermine the value of the metric and delay your decision to shift direction. Step 3: Set explicit decision thresholds before you start Inflection metrics only work if they force decisions. Before execution begins, define the thresholds:
Do not leave thresholds open-ended or defer the decision to “more data” when the result is clear. The greatest risk of failure here, beyond not having inflection metrics at all, is having them and ignoring or explaining away the results. Step 4: Track inflection metrics separately from performance scorecards Inflection metrics serve a different function than performance metrics and should be subject to a different review cycle. Inflection metrics require a fast loop, decision-oriented review cadence focused on two questions:
If the conversation shifts to defending the number, unpacking historical context or debating data nuance, the metric is not functioning as the decision tool it is meant to be. Inflection metrics exist to collapse the time between signal and action. If they aren’t triggering a clear decision within the same review window, they are not working. Revisit the thresholds or redefine the metric. Why It WorksInflection metrics work because they connect intent to evidence in a tight, repeatable loop. They turn strategic assumptions into something observable and testable, so leadership isn’t relying on confidence, consensus or lagging results to decide what to do next. For scale-ups, this is critical. Complexity increases faster than certainty. More people, more initiatives and more capital amplify the cost of staying pointed in the wrong direction. Inflection metrics reduce drag. They prevent teams from over-investing in initiatives that are no longer justified and remove ambiguity about when to stay the course versus change it. They surface whether a strategic hypothesis is gaining traction or breaking down while there is still time to respond, and that can make all the difference. Your TurnWhat’s your current situation? Do you have report card metrics in place, but TBD on inflection metrics to validate your 2026 strategy? No judgement, and you’re not alone. That’s the case for the vast majority of scale-ups, but it doesn’t have to be the case for you The beginning of a new year is one of the few natural reset points where redefining metrics doesn’t create friction, it creates clarity. If you want help separating inflection metrics from performance scorecards and defining the signals that should guide your next decisions, book a Signal Session. We’ll clarify your strategy and define the signals that will tell you whether you’re on the right path.
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The Signal Report
A weekly bulletin for leaders who have outgrown founder-led hustle and are ready to build systems that sustain their vision and scale their business. Each issue decodes one “signal” — those subtle patterns that reveal friction, bottlenecks or untapped leverage. You’ll learn what it means, why it matters and how to fix it, all in 5 minutes or less, so you can shift from signal to system and from vision to velocity.
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